Observe
Capture the same market across Bovada, sharp books, and mainstream US books.
Independent sports forecasting · Phase 1
The model makes a claim.
The market keeps the score.
OpenBook is rebuilding from first principles: sport-specific probabilities, timestamped prices from multiple books, and an immutable paper trail from forecast to settlement.
Research universeUFCNFLNBAMLBNHLSoccer
Pregame observations1,98230 books · audited
Qualified edges0passed every gate
Paper bankroll$200.00no exposure yet
Model statusResearchnot commercially qualified
Protocol 01
A forecast is more than a pick.
Every decision carries enough evidence to reproduce what the system knew, what price it saw, and why it acted.
Forecast
Generate a probability before price selection, with model and feature versions attached.
Qualify
Require edge, calibration, liquidity, and data-quality gates before a paper wager exists.
Settle
Grade the outcome, closing price, bankroll effect, and forecast quality independently.
Evidence ledger
History stays visible. Meaning stays precise.
The prototype remains available as development evidence, but it does not borrow credibility from the clean research phase.
P1ResearchActive · started Aug 7, 2026
Valid forecasts60
Paper bets0
QualificationResearch only
Inspect →Prototype caveatRemoved fault-era cards and non-closing price comparisons prevent this phase from being called a verified forward record.